Euro 2012 qualifiers 11 October

Bit of a struggle to find a decent angle to look at in tonight's qualifying matches for Euro 2012. There are several would be banker bets around but many of the sides have little to play for. An accumulator of, say, Turkey, Italy, Norway, Spain, Croatia and Israel only offers you around 2/1. With only Turkey and Croatia having anything more than pride to play for there seems little point in chasing so many teams for such a short price.

A couple of games stick out for over 2.5 goals:

Sweden v Holland: have scored 63 goals between them in 18 games with another 14 conceded giving a total of 77 for an average of 4.27 per game. Of course, playing San Marino has skewed the stats slightly but both sides have scored freely throughout qualifying and the game between them in Holland produced 5 goals. Over 2.5 goals at 21/20 looks a good price.

Germany v Belgium: Belgium visit the free-scoring Germans probably needing to win to qualify for the play-offs given that Turkey play at home v Azerbaijan tonight. The game between Belgium and Germany in Brussels last year produced just the 1 goal but the sides have scored 50 goals between them since that match in 16 games that averaged 4.18 goals. Germany, who scored 3 in Turkey last week and happily thrashed England and Argentina at the World Cup last year, will be ready to exploit any openings the Belgians may leave in their search for the win. 8/15 available for over 2.5 goals.

Pick: Sweden v Holland and Germany v Belgium both games over 2.5 goals: 2 singles and a double.

Euro 2012 qualifiers 7 Oct 2011

Odds on 1/19 Holland, 1/10 Belgium, 1/10 Portugal and 1/9 France don't attract but you may like to add any to top up an accumulator.

5/4 Germany at Turkey and 4/5 Spain at Czech Republic are very attractive. Both have 100% records and are clearly superior to their opponents. However, both have already qualified and playing away against opponents who must win. Sweden beat Finland 5-0 in June and are 8/13 to win in Finland. Sweden need a win to go 3 points clear of Hungary in 2nd place. Finland cannot qualify.

8/11 Armenia, 3/10 Latvia, 1/2 Denmark and 8/11 England.

Armenia v Macedonia - Armenia's only defeat at home in qualifying came a year ago v Ireland. They managed a 0-0 at home to group leaders Russia in March and comfortably won their other 2 home games. Macedonia's only away win was a 2-0 victory at whipping boys, Andorra. Last month Armenia won 4-0 in Slovakia whilst Macedonia managed a 1-0 win at home to Andorra.

Latvia v Malta - Malta 1 point from 8 games have lost all 4 away from home. Latvia's recent form is good, drawing 1-1 at home with 2nd placed Greece last month and winning away in Georgia the week before.

Cyprus v Denmark - Denmark are level on points with Portugal and Norway at the top of group H and need to win at Cyprus who have 0 wins and 1 point from 3 home games.

Montenegro v England - Montenegro's recent form is poor having lost 2-1 in Wales last month and drew 1-1 at home with Bulgaria in June. England won easily away to both Bulgaria and Wales, did struggle last time out at home v Wales and Montenegro have taken a point at Wembley. But England's away form is strong with 3 wins out of 3.

Picks:

Accumulator of Armenia, Latvia, Denmark and England is 24/5.

Czech v Spain over 2.5 goals at 11/10. Better odds than the Spain win.