Saturday 7 April 2012

Premier League betting preview: Arsenal v Manchester City

Traditionally this fixture has been a home banker.  City's win at the Emirates in the Carling Cup this season was their first win in 27 attempts at Arsenal dating back to 1975.  However, City are unbeaten in their last 3 visits to Arsenal and have not conceded a goal in those visits.  Arsenal have only scored in 1 of the last 6 fixtures between the sides, which was a 3-0 win at City last season in a game that saw City reduced to 10 men in the first 5 minutes.  That victory was Arsenal's only win in the last 7 against City. 


Arsenal have won 7 straight games at home since a defeat to Manchester United in January but were beaten away at struggling QPR last week.  City's recent away form is poor, winning only 3 of 11 in all competitions since that win at the Emirates.  Lescott should be back in tandem with Kompany to try and thwart the threat of Van Persie.  Aguero returns up front for City.   3 points will take Arsenal above Spurs into 3rd place.  Arsenal have never finished behind Spurs under Arsene Wenger.  It's 13/8 for the home win, 5/2 the draw, and a City win is 19/10


Both Teams Score - the last 3 games between these sides at the Emirates have seen 2 goalless draws and a 1-0 City victory.  The reverse fixture in Manchester this season also finished 1-0 to City.  The last time both teams scored in this fixture was 7 games ago in City's 4-2 home win at the Etihad. 4/6 is available for both teams to score.  It's 11/8 for that not to happen.


Under/Over 2.5 goals - as already indicated above, goals have been at a premium in this fixture of late.  7 of the last 8 fixtures between the sides at the Emirates have seen under 2.5 goals.  It's 3/4 for over 2.5 goals but a very attractive looking 11/10 for under 2.5 goals.  Given the lack of goals in this fixture recently you may want to consider the 3/1 available for under 1.5 goals.  A contrary spanner to throw in the works is that Arsenal's last 7 home games have all seen over 2.5 goals whilst City's last 7 away games in the Premier League have seen under 2.5 goals.


Goalscorers - if you fancy an Arsenal goal it's hard to look past league leading goalscorer Robin Van Persie at 5/4 anytime or 9/2 first goalscorer.  For City the returning Sergio Aguero is 13/2 anytime and 2/1 first.  I think the set-piece will be crucial in this game and City's key set-piece men should be looked at.  You can get Kolarov at 8/1 to score anytime (28/1 first), Lescott at  12/1 anytime (40/1 first) and Kompany at 18/1 (66/1 first).  Check the teamsheets first.


Correct score - this game looks like being a close one, with a 1-0 win for either side available at 10/1.  City can nick this game to keep their title hopes alive but there is certainly merit in backing both sides (dutching) to win 1-0 given City's recent away record.
 
Picks - Under 2.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals, dutch the 1-0 correct score.

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