Thursday 27 October 2011

The Weekend Treble

3 homes of Chelsea, Sheffield United and Swindon make up a 10/3 treble this weekend:

Chelsea v Arsenal - 3rd placed Chelsea have a 100% home record this season. Arsenal have not won away from home this season, with 3 defeats and a draw. Arsenal, who last won at Chelsea in 2008, have only 3 wins from 18 against Chelsea in all competitions. Chelsea have Bosingwa and Drogba (13 goals v Arsenal) suspended but can recall Torres after his ban. Drogba's influence on Chelsea less marked this season with only 1 of their 20 league goals.

Sheffield United v Exeter - 4th placed Sheffield United have 5 wins from 8 at home this season. 20th placed Exeter have only 1 win from 7 away games and have 5 defeats on the road. Sheffield United's 2 home defeats were against the division's top 2 sides. Sheffield United are unbeaten in 4.

Swindon v Bradford - 7th placed Swindon have won 5 of 7 home games this season. 21st placed Bradford have not won any of their 8 away games, losing 5. Swindon are unbeaten in 4 and were the last team to beat top of the table Crawley.

Check @SportsBriefs on twitter for more tips.

Tuesday 18 October 2011

Manchester derby: betting preview

Manchester United v Manchester City, 23 October

Both Teams To Score: the last time United failed to score in a home league game was in December 2009 v Aston Villa. November 2004 was the last time City kept a clean sheet at Old Trafford. City have scored on 8 of their last 10 Premier League trips to Old Trafford. This season United have scored 16 goals in 4 home games whilst City have managed 14 in 4 away games. The 3/4 available at Blue Square and 888sport on both teams scoring looks a good price.

Over 2.5 goals in game: 4 of the last 5 fixtures between these sides at Old Trafford have seen 3 or more goals scored. The one that didn't was a 2-0 win for United in 2009. City's games have averaged 4.1 goals this season whilst United's average 3.9. These figures rise to an average of 4.75 goals in City's away games and United's home games. Even taking away the 8-2 result at home to Arsenal, United's home games still average 3 goals per game. Several firms offer 4/5 for over 2.5 goals in the game.

Anytime goalscorer: the bets above assume goals in the game so it makes sense to plump for the leading goalscorer on either side to score at some point. 9 goals Premier League leading scorer Wayne Rooney is now available at 9/5 with Paddy Power. Rooney has scored 6 times for United against City including the last 3 times the sides have met at Old Trafford. Sergio Aguero came back from injury and off the bench to hit City's Champions League winner on Tuesday. He has 8 Premier League goals this season and is a well priced 12/5 at Skybet and Stan James (BetFred have him down at 7/4). If Mario Balotelli gets a start he will be worth a punt after scoring in each of his last 4 starts but he may have to settle for a place on the bench depending on how Mancini plays his hand. Best to wait for Sunday's team sheet before backing Balotelli, he's currently 3/1 with Unibet.

Monday 17 October 2011

Champions League Group A 18 October

Napoli v Bayern Munich - this is a tough game to call and I can see arguments in favour of any result. Napoli have conceded 6 goals in 8 Serie A and Champions League games this season. Bayern have not conceded a goal since 7 August. This makes the even money available for under 2.5 goals in the match the favoured bet.

Manchester City v Villarreal - City have scored at will in their unbeaten start to the Premier League but have looked nervy in the Champions League. Villarreal haven't started La Liga well with only 1 win from 7 games leaving them in 13th place and have managed only 1 goal away from home. It's expected City should pick up 3 points in this fixture but odds of 1/3 don't attract. City and Villarreal have only 1 goal between them in 4 Champions League matches so the 13/10 available for under 2.5 goals looks the bet.

Tuesday 11 October 2011

Euro 2012 qualifiers 11 October

Bit of a struggle to find a decent angle to look at in tonight's qualifying matches for Euro 2012. There are several would be banker bets around but many of the sides have little to play for. An accumulator of, say, Turkey, Italy, Norway, Spain, Croatia and Israel only offers you around 2/1. With only Turkey and Croatia having anything more than pride to play for there seems little point in chasing so many teams for such a short price.

A couple of games stick out for over 2.5 goals:

Sweden v Holland: have scored 63 goals between them in 18 games with another 14 conceded giving a total of 77 for an average of 4.27 per game. Of course, playing San Marino has skewed the stats slightly but both sides have scored freely throughout qualifying and the game between them in Holland produced 5 goals. Over 2.5 goals at 21/20 looks a good price.

Germany v Belgium: Belgium visit the free-scoring Germans probably needing to win to qualify for the play-offs given that Turkey play at home v Azerbaijan tonight. The game between Belgium and Germany in Brussels last year produced just the 1 goal but the sides have scored 50 goals between them since that match in 16 games that averaged 4.18 goals. Germany, who scored 3 in Turkey last week and happily thrashed England and Argentina at the World Cup last year, will be ready to exploit any openings the Belgians may leave in their search for the win. 8/15 available for over 2.5 goals.

Pick: Sweden v Holland and Germany v Belgium both games over 2.5 goals: 2 singles and a double.

Friday 7 October 2011

The Weekend Treble

3 homes from League 1 makes up a 4/1 treble this weekend:

Charlton v Tranmere - league leaders Charlton are unbeaten in all 11 league matches this season. 12th placed Tranmere have lost 2 on the bounce at top 6 Preston and Huddersfield.

Huddersfield v Stevenage - 5th placed Hudders are unbeaten at home this season. Stevenage have won only 1 of 5 away and haven't won anywhere since 13 September.

Sheffield Wednesday v Chesterfield - Wednesday have a 100% home record in the league. Chesterfield's only away win in 5 was at lowly Bournemouth. Expect goals. Wednesday have 13 in 5 at home, Chesterfield have let in 12 away. It's 8/11 for over 2.5 goals.

Thursday 6 October 2011

Euro 2012 qualifiers 7 Oct 2011

Odds on 1/19 Holland, 1/10 Belgium, 1/10 Portugal and 1/9 France don't attract but you may like to add any to top up an accumulator.


5/4 Germany at Turkey and 4/5 Spain at Czech Republic are very attractive. Both have 100% records and are clearly superior to their opponents. However, both have already qualified and playing away against opponents who must win. Sweden beat Finland 5-0 in June and are 8/13 to win in Finland. Sweden need a win to go 3 points clear of Hungary in 2nd place. Finland cannot qualify.


8/11 Armenia, 3/10 Latvia, 1/2 Denmark and 8/11 England.


Armenia v Macedonia - Armenia's only defeat at home in qualifying came a year ago v Ireland. They managed a 0-0 at home to group leaders Russia in March and comfortably won their other 2 home games. Macedonia's only away win was a 2-0 victory at whipping boys, Andorra. Last month Armenia won 4-0 in Slovakia whilst Macedonia managed a 1-0 win at home to Andorra.


Latvia v Malta - Malta 1 point from 8 games have lost all 4 away from home. Latvia's recent form is good, drawing 1-1 at home with 2nd placed Greece last month and winning away in Georgia the week before.


Cyprus v Denmark - Denmark are level on points with Portugal and Norway at the top of group H and need to win at Cyprus who have 0 wins and 1 point from 3 home games.


Montenegro v England - Montenegro's recent form is poor having lost 2-1 in Wales last month and drew 1-1 at home with Bulgaria in June. England won easily away to both Bulgaria and Wales, did struggle last time out at home v Wales and Montenegro have taken a point at Wembley. But England's away form is strong with 3 wins out of 3.


Picks:

Accumulator of Armenia, Latvia, Denmark and England is 24/5.

Czech v Spain over 2.5 goals at 11/10. Better odds than the Spain win.