Tuesday 18 October 2011

Manchester derby: betting preview

Manchester United v Manchester City, 23 October

Both Teams To Score: the last time United failed to score in a home league game was in December 2009 v Aston Villa. November 2004 was the last time City kept a clean sheet at Old Trafford. City have scored on 8 of their last 10 Premier League trips to Old Trafford. This season United have scored 16 goals in 4 home games whilst City have managed 14 in 4 away games. The 3/4 available at Blue Square and 888sport on both teams scoring looks a good price.

Over 2.5 goals in game: 4 of the last 5 fixtures between these sides at Old Trafford have seen 3 or more goals scored. The one that didn't was a 2-0 win for United in 2009. City's games have averaged 4.1 goals this season whilst United's average 3.9. These figures rise to an average of 4.75 goals in City's away games and United's home games. Even taking away the 8-2 result at home to Arsenal, United's home games still average 3 goals per game. Several firms offer 4/5 for over 2.5 goals in the game.

Anytime goalscorer: the bets above assume goals in the game so it makes sense to plump for the leading goalscorer on either side to score at some point. 9 goals Premier League leading scorer Wayne Rooney is now available at 9/5 with Paddy Power. Rooney has scored 6 times for United against City including the last 3 times the sides have met at Old Trafford. Sergio Aguero came back from injury and off the bench to hit City's Champions League winner on Tuesday. He has 8 Premier League goals this season and is a well priced 12/5 at Skybet and Stan James (BetFred have him down at 7/4). If Mario Balotelli gets a start he will be worth a punt after scoring in each of his last 4 starts but he may have to settle for a place on the bench depending on how Mancini plays his hand. Best to wait for Sunday's team sheet before backing Balotelli, he's currently 3/1 with Unibet.

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