Thursday 3 November 2011

Premier League live games 5 Nov: Betting preview

Some things to consider for betting on the live games this Saturday:

Newcastle v Everton - unbeaten Newcastle host an Everton team beaten in 4 of their last 5 league games. Everton were the last team to win at St. James's Park but that victory last season was their only win in 8 trips to Newcastle. 5 of those visits ended in defeat. Newcastle have won 3 of their 5 home games this season, Everton have won 2 of 4 away. Everton might be bolstered by the return of Distin, Neville and Cahill but will be without suspended Fellaini. 13/10 is available at a few firms for a Newcastle win, the draw is around the 9/4 mark with Everton generally 12/5 to win.

Both teams score - this has happened in 6 of the last 8 meetings between the sides at St. James's. Newcastle have scored in all 4 home games since the opening day of the season. Everton have scored in 3 of their 4 away games. Skybet offers 5/6 that both teams score.

Under/Over 2.5 goals - there have been 12 goals in Newcastle's 5 home games this season whilst Everton's 4 away fixtures have seen 11 goals. There have been 23 goals in the last 8 fixtures between the sides at St James's. This makes the 2.5 goals mark a marginal call and the bookies favour under at 8/11, even money for over.

Picks - my tip is the 5/6 that both teams score. I'm inclined to steer clear of other bets on this game. Form indicates a win for Newcastle but if Distin, Neville and Cahill return I think a case could be put forward for Everton to draw, or to repeat last season's win. If both Neville and Distin miss out I would move in on the Newcastle win, both teams score and over 2.5 goals in the game.

QPR v Manchester City - it will be a major surprise if 4/11 City do not win this game. QPR's 1 win from 5 home games was a fortunate victory over 9 man Chelsea. City have won 4 of their 5 away games, dropping points only at Fulham when they drew after leading 2-0.

Handicap - of the 8 away games that City have played in all competitions they have won 5 by 3 or more goals. Bet365 offers even money that City win this game starting with a handicap of -1. City should cover that handicap.

Over 2.5 goals - QPR have scored only 3 at home this season but their 10 games this season have totalled 25 goals, 17 conceded. City are scoring 4 goals per game away from home. 3/5 is available at Betfair for over 2.5 goals. The over 3.5 goals target is also likely to be hit and can be backed at 6/4.

Half Time/Full Time - City have led at half time in 4 of their 5 away games. Only Blackburn have held City at half time in a game City went on to win 4-0. QPR have led at home once at half time. City to win at half time and fulltime is even money at Unibet and Coral.

Anytime goalscorer - Aguero and Dzeko were left on the bench for City's Champions League win at Villarreal. Mancini may bring both back for this game and rest Balotelli. Unibet offers 11/10 Aguero and 6/5 Dzeko to score anytime. Balotelli is 5/4.

Picks - all those featured above: City win, City -1, City HT/FT, over 2.5 goals, over 3.5 goals, Aguero and Dzeko to score anytime (Balotelli if he starts).

No comments:

Post a Comment