Thursday 1 December 2011

Premier League live games 3 Dec: Betting preview

A few things to consider if you fancy a bet on Saturday's live games:

Aston Villa v Manchester United - the last time Villa beat United at Villa Park was the 3-1 victory in 1995 that led Alan Hansen to declare in the general direction of Alex Ferguson that "you win nothing with kids". United won the double that season and plenty since, including 9 of the subsequent 15 league fixtures between these sides at Villa Park, although the last 3 have ended in a draw. Villa have lost 1 of 6 home games this season, United are unbeaten away. United's second string suffered a humiliating defeat at home to Crystal Palace in the Carling Cup on Wednesday but Ferguson will send out a far superior side this Saturday, and will look to add to 2 successive 1-0 victories away from home in the Premier League. 8/11 is available for a United win but recent history says the draw at 14/5 with Stan James may offer better value.

Under/Over 2.5 goals - 7 of United's last 8 Premier League matches have seen less than 2.5 goals. Villla have 10 goals in 6 home games, United have conceded only 3 away. United have managed just the 1 goal in 4 successive away games. Going all the way back to Hansen's comment again, 12 of the last 15 league matches between these sides at Villa Park have seen less than 2.5 goals. Form and history suggest a low-scoring game and 28/29 is available at Betfair for under 2.5 goals.

1st Goalscorer - I tend to prefer betting on anytime goalscorers but history and form says there might be only 1 goal in this. I like the 5/1 available at Bwin for Javier Hernandez to score first. Hernandez has 6 goals this season, 5 of them have been the first goal.

Picks: under 2.5 goals, Hernandez first goalscorer.

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